Chilichonse chomwe muyenera kudziwa ponena za kusinthasintha kwamtengo wamsika 

Volatility ndi mawu oyika ndalama omwe amafotokoza pamene msika kapena chitetezo chikukumana ndi nthawi zosayembekezereka komanso nthawi zina kusuntha kwamitengo kwadzidzidzi. Anthu nthawi zambiri amangoganiza za kusakhazikika pamene mitengo ikutsika. Koma kusakhazikika kungatanthauzenso kuwonjezereka kwadzidzidzi kwamitengo. Kunena zowona, kusakhazikika ndi muyeso wa kubalalitsidwa mozungulira tanthauzo kapena pafupifupi kubwerera kwa chitetezo.

Kusasunthika kungayesedwe pogwiritsa ntchito kupatuka kwa standard, zomwe zimasonyeza momwe mtengo wamtengo wapatali umasonkhanitsidwa mozungulira pafupifupi kapena kusuntha (MA). Mitengo ikalumikizidwa mwamphamvu, kupatuka kwa muyezo kuli kochepa. Mitengo ikagawanika kwambiri, kupatuka kokhazikika ndikofunikira.

M'nkhaniyi, tikukamba za kusakhazikika kwa msika. Tiyeni

Kodi chimayambitsa kusasinthasintha?

Pali zinthu zambiri zomwe zingayambitse kusinthasintha kwamtengo wamtengo wapatali pamsika. M’nkhaniyi, tikupereka zochepa chabe mwa zinthu zimenezi. Werengani mpaka kumapeto.

1. Zinthu zandale ndi zachuma

Maboma amatenga gawo lalikulu pakuwongolera mafakitale ndipo amatha kukhudza chuma popanga zisankho pazamalonda, malamulo ndi mfundo. Chilichonse kuyambira zokamba mpaka zisankho zitha kuyambitsa chisokonezo pakati pa osunga ndalama, zomwe zimakhudza mitengo yamasheya.

Deta yachuma imathandizanso, chifukwa chuma chikayenda bwino, osunga ndalama amakonda kuchitapo kanthu. Malipoti a mwezi uliwonse a ntchito, kutsika kwa mitengo, kuchuluka kwa ndalama za ogula, ndi kuwerengera kwa GDP kotala kotala kumatha kukhudza momwe msika ukuyendera. Kumbali ina, ngati izi sizikukwaniritsa zomwe msika ukuyembekeza, misika imatha kukhala yosasunthika.

2. Zinthu Zamakampani ndi Zagawo

Zochitika zenizeni zimatha kuyambitsa kusakhazikika mkati mwamakampani kapena gawo. Mu gawo la mafuta, mwachitsanzo, chochitika chachikulu cha nyengo m’dera lalikulu lopanga mafuta chingapangitse kuti mitengo ya mafuta ikwere.

Zotsatira zake, mitengo yamakampani okhudzana ndi kugawa mafuta imatha kukwera, monga momwe angayembekezere kuti apindule nayo, pomwe mitengo ya omwe ali ndi mtengo wokwera wamafuta pabizinesi yawo ingagwe.

Mofananamo, kuwonjezereka kwa kayendetsedwe ka boma m'makampani enaake kungapangitse mitengo yamtengo wapatali kutsika, chifukwa cha kutsatiridwa kwakukulu ndi ndalama zogwirira ntchito zomwe zingakhudze kukula kwa phindu lamtsogolo.

3. Kachitidwe ka kampani

Kusakhazikika sinthawi zonse msika wonse ndipo akhoza kudandaula mwini yekha. Nkhani zabwino, monga lipoti lamphamvu lazopeza kapena chinthu chatsopano chomwe chimakopa ogula, chingapangitse osunga ndalama kukhala osangalala ndi kampaniyo. Ngati osunga ndalama ambiri akuyang'ana kuti agule, kufunikira kowonjezereka kumeneku kungathandize kukweza mtengo wamtengo wapatali kwambiri.

Mosiyana ndi izi, kukumbukira kwazinthu, kuphwanya deta, kapena kusamalidwa bwino kungawononge mtengo wamasheya pomwe osunga ndalama amagulitsa masheya awo. Kutengera ndi kukula kwa kampani, magwiridwe antchito abwino kapena oyipawa amathanso kukhudza msika waukulu.

Mitundu ya kusakhazikika

Kusakhazikika ndi chimodzi mwazinthu zomwe osunga ndalama m'misika yazachuma amawunika akamasankha. Pali njira ziwiri zazikuluzikulu za kusakhazikika, iliyonse ili ndi zabwino ndi zoyipa zake:

Kusakhazikika kwamphamvu

Mawu akuti kusakhazikika amatanthauza kusakhazikika kwachuma ndipo ndi gawo lodziwika bwino pazamalonda. Kusasunthika komwe kumatanthawuza kumasonyeza momwe msika umaonera komwe kumayenera kukhala kosasunthika m'tsogolomu, koma sikumaneneratu momwe mtengo wa katundu udzasunthira.

Nthawi zambiri, kusinthika kwachuma kumakwera pamsika wa zimbalangondo chifukwa osunga ndalama ambiri amayembekeza kuti mtengo wake upitirire kutsika pakapita nthawi.

Zimachepa mkati msika wa ng'ombe chifukwa amalonda amakhulupirira kuti mtengo uyenera kukwera pakapita nthawi. Izi ndichifukwa cha chikhulupiliro chofala chakuti misika ya zimbalangondo ndiyowopsa kuposa misika ya ng'ombe.

Kusakhazikika kwamphamvu ndi imodzi mwama metrics omwe amalonda amagwiritsa ntchito kuyerekeza kusuntha kwamitengo yamtsogolo kutengera zinthu zingapo zolosera.

Kuzindikirika / kusakhazikika kwakanthawi

Kusakhazikika koyembekezeka, komwe kumadziwikanso kuti kusakhazikika kwa mbiri yakale, ndi njira yoyezera mowerengera momwe zobweza za chinthu china kapena index ya msika zimabalalitsidwa zikawunikidwa pakapita nthawi.

Nthawi zambiri, kusasunthika kwa mbiri yakale kumayezedwa pokhazikitsa njira yokhotakhota kuchokera pamtengo wake wapakati pa nthawi yomwe yaperekedwa.

Kupatuka kokhazikika imakonda kukhala muyeso wodziwika kwambiri wa kusakhazikika kozindikira, ngakhale pali njira zina zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito powerengera metric iyi. Chitetezo chowopsa ndi chomwe chimakhala ndi mbiri yakale yosasinthika ngakhale mumitundu ina yamalonda izi sizingakhale zoyipa chifukwa mikhalidwe ya bullish ndi bearish ikhoza kukhala yowopsa.

Potsutsana ndi miyeso iwiri iyi, kusakhazikika kwa mbiri yakale (retrospective) kumakhala ngati muyeso,

Ngati miyeso iwiriyo ikuwonetsa zofananira, ndiye kuti katundu amaonedwa kuti ndi wamtengo wapatali malinga ndi miyezo yakale. Pachifukwa ichi, amalonda amayang'ana zopotoka kuchokera pamlingo uwu kuti adziwe ngati katundu ndi wamtengo wapatali kapena wosafunika.

The Standard Deviation Model for Valuing Financial Volatility

Kupatuka kokhazikika ndi muyeso womwe umagwiritsidwa ntchito powerengera kuchuluka kwa kufalikira kapena kusiyanasiyana kwapakati pa mtengo wachuma, kupangitsa kuti ikhale njira yoyenera yoyezera kusakhazikika kwa msika. Nthawi zambiri, kubalalitsidwa ndiko kusiyana pakati pa mtengo wapakati wa chinthu ndi mtengo wake weniweni.

Kuchuluka kwa kuchulukana kapena kusiyanasiyana, m'pamenenso pamakhala kupatuka kokhazikika. Kusiyanasiyana kocheperako, kumakhala kocheperako kusinthika kokhazikika. Ofufuza nthawi zambiri amagwiritsa ntchito kupatuka kokhazikika ngati njira yoyezera ngozi yomwe ikuyembekezeka ndikuzindikira kukula kwa kusuntha kwamitengo.

Powerengera kusokonekera kokhazikika kwa kusakhazikika, kusiyana kwa data yamtengo wamtengo wamtengo wapatali kuyenera kutengedwa. Kupatuka kokhazikika ndi gawo lalikulu la kusiyana.

Pazifukwa zowonetsera, tiwona mtengo wamtengo wapatali womwe wakwera mofanana 1 $ mpaka 10 $ mu nthawi 10 zamalonda. Kupatuka kokhazikika kudzachokera munjira zotsatirazi:

• Werengetsani avareji ya masiku 10 amalonda. Izi zimachitika powonjezera mitengo ($1, $2… mpaka $10) kenako ndikugawaniza ndi 10 (pankhaniyi, chiwerengero chonse cha mphotho). Chiwerengero cha 55 chogawidwa ndi 10 chidzakhala $ 5,5.
• Tsimikizirani kupatuka kuchokera pazambiri pa nthawi iliyonse. Ndiko kusiyana pakati pa mtengo wotseka ndi pafupifupi. Mwachitsanzo, pa tsiku la 7, mtengo wa 7 $ amapatuka pa avareji $5,5 kuchokera ku 2,5.
• Yendetsani kutembenuka kwa nthawi iliyonse. Nthawi zonse zokhala ndi zopotoka zidzathetsedwa ndikuziphwanya.
• Onjezani zopatuka za squared. Malinga ndi chitsanzo chathu, kuchuluka kwake ndi 82,5 $
• Gawani chiwerengerocho ndi chiwerengero cha nthawi, pamenepa, 10. Izi zidzakhala $ 8,25.
• Kupatuka kokhazikika ndiye masikweya mizu ya nambala iyi. Pankhaniyi, muyezo kupatuka ndi $ 2,75, zomwe zikuwonetsa kugawidwa kwamitengo mozungulira mtengo wapakati, zomwe zimapatsa amalonda kuzindikira pakupatuka komwe kungatheke pakati pa mtengo wamtengo wapatali ndi avareji.

Monga momwe mawerengedwe omwe ali pamwambawa akusonyezera, kupotoza koyenera monga chiwopsezo kumalingalira kuti deta imatsatira kugawa kwachibadwa, kapena zomwe zimadziwika kuti belu lopindika.

Muzochitika zotere, monga pamwambapa, 68% deta idzagwera mkati mwa kupatuka kumodzi; 95% adzakhala awiri zopatuka wamba ndi 99,7% deta idzagwera m'mitundu itatu yosiyana.

Koma pali zolepheretsa kugwiritsa ntchito kupatuka kokhazikika ngati muyeso wa kusakhazikika. Poyambira, mitengo kapena kubweza sikufanana konse, ndipo zimatsatiridwa ndi nthawi zakukwera kwambiri mbali zonse ziwiri.

Izi zikutanthauza kuti kupatuka kokhazikika komweko kumatha kusinthasintha malinga ndi nthawi zomwe zimaganiziridwa pakuwerengera.

Palinso njira ya beta (β) kuyeza kapena kuwerengera kusinthasintha. Mwanjira iyi, kusakhazikika kwa chinthu chomwe chili pansi kumayezedwa poyerekezera ndi zinthu zina.

Mwachitsanzo, Kusasinthika kwa masheya a Apple kumatha kuyesedwa motsutsana ndi kusinthasintha kwazinthu zina zatekinoloje kapena ngakhale ndi index yotsimikizika yamasheya.

Ubwino wa Market Volatility

Kusakhazikika sikuli koyipa nthawi zonse. Kusintha kwa msika nthawi zina kumapereka malo olowera omwe osunga ndalama angatengerepo mwayi.

Ngati wogulitsa ndalama ali ndi ndalama ndipo akuyembekezera kugulitsa msika, kukonza msika kungapereke mwayi woika ndalamazo pamtengo wotsika. Kutsika kosasunthika kwa misika kumaperekanso osunga ndalama omwe amakhulupirira kuti misika idzachita bwino kwa nthawi yayitali mwayi wogula magawo owonjezera m'makampani omwe amakonda, koma pamitengo yotsika.

Chitsanzo chosavuta mwina Investor akhoza kugula 5 O? $0, katundu yemwe anali wamtengo wapatali $100 kanthawi kochepa kapitako. Kugula masheya motere kumachepetsa mtengo wapakati pa gawo lililonse, zomwe zimathandiza kukonza momwe ntchito yanu ikuyendera misika ikabwereranso.

Njirayi ndi yofanana pamene katundu akukwera mofulumira. Otsatsa amatha kupindula pogulitsa, ndalama zomwe zitha kuyikidwa m'malo ena omwe amapereka mwayi wabwinoko.

Pomvetsetsa kusakhazikika ndi zomwe zimayambitsa, osunga ndalama amatha kugwiritsa ntchito mwayi wopeza ndalama zomwe amapereka kuti abweretse phindu kwanthawi yayitali.