Zvese nezve maitiro emari

Sei nyangwe mainvestivisheni ane ruzivo achitenga kunonoka obva atengesa kare? Sei makambani ane zviratidzo zvemasheya anosvika pakutanga mualfabheti aine mukana diki unoyerwa pane iwo anouya gare gare? Mumwe mubvunzo ndewokuti:  Sei vanhu vachiramba kubvisa mari kubva a savings account, kunyange pavanenge vanyura muchikwereti? Kuti tipindure iyi mibvunzo, isu tinofanirwa kunyura mune psychology yevanoisa mari uye kudzidza maitiro avo. Mukuita izvi unenge uchiita zvakadanwa maitiro emari.

Behavioral finance yakagadziridzwa muchikamu mukupindura kune inoshanda musika hypothesis. Idzidziso yakakurumbira yekuti musika wemasheya unofamba zvine mwero uye zvinofanotaurwa. Mastock anowanzo tengeserana nemutengo wawo wakanaka, uye mitengo iyi inoratidza ruzivo rwese rwunowanikwa kune wese munhu. Iwe haugone kurova musika, nekuti zvese zvaunoziva zvatova kana zvichakurumidza kuratidzwa mumitengo yemusika.

Chikwata che Finance de Demain auya pamwe chete kuti akuunzire zvese zvaunoda kuziva nezvemaitiro emari. Muchokwadi, kunzwisisa kwezvemari psychology uye maitiro emari kunogona kuve mukana munzira mbiri.

Chokutanga, kunzwisisa nzira dzakasiyana-siyana dzekuita sarudzo dzinogona kukanganiswa kunogona kutibatsira kudzivirira njodzi dzinowanzoitika pamusika wemasheya.

Chechipiri, kunzwisisa kwemaitiro emari evamwe vatori vechikamu pamusika kunogona kutibatsira kuziva mikana. Nguva yakanakisa yekupinda mabhizimusi matsva kana kuita mainvestimenti ndeapo vamwe vari kukanganisa.

Asi usati watanga, dzidza zvakawanda nezvazvo quantum finance.

handeyi

🥀 Chii chinonzi maitiro emari?

Behavioral finance chidzidzo chepfungwa dzevanoisa mari nemisika yemari. Chaizvoizvo,maitiro emari ndeyekuziva uye kutsanangura kusashanda uye kukanganisa mumisika yemari. Inoshandisa zviedzo uye tsvagiridzo kuratidza kuti vanhu nemisika yemari haisi nguva dzose ine musoro uye kuti sarudzo dzavanoita kazhinji zvakaipa.

Kana iwe uchinetseka kuti manzwiro uye kusarura kunokanganisa sei mitengo yemasheya, maitiro emari anopa mhinduro uye tsananguro.

Mari yekuzvibata inobva kubasa renyanzvi dzepfungwa Daniel Kahneman naAmos Tversky uye nyanzvi yezvehupfumi Robert J. Shiller muma1970 nema1980. Vakashandisa zvakapararira, zvakadzika midzi, zvisizvo zvekusaziva uye heuristics kune nzira iyo vanhu vanoita nayo sarudzo dzemari.

Panguva imwecheteyo, vatsvakurudzi vezvemari vakatanga kuratidza kuti fungidziro yemusika inoshanda, dzidziso yakakurumbira yekuti musika wemasheya unofamba nenzira ine musoro uye inofanotaurwa, haigari ichimira kuti iongororwe. Muchokwadi, misika yakazara nekusashanda nekuda kwevanoisa mari vanofunga zvisiri izvo nezve mutengo uye njodzi.

Mumakore gumi apfuura, mari yehunhu yakambundirwa munharaunda dzedzidzo nedzemari sechikamu chemaitiro ehupfumi anopesvedzerwa neeconomic psychology.

Nekuratidza kuti sei, rini, uye nei hunhu huchitsauka kubva pane zvinotarisirwa zvinotarisirwa, hunhu hwemari hunopa muenzaniso wekubatsira munhu wese kuita zvirinani, sarudzo dzine musoro pamusoro pemari yavo.

🥀 Traditional VS maitiro emari

Yakawanda yedzidziso yezvemari yakagadziridzwa mumakumi emakore apfuura inobata vatengesi sevane musoro. Izvi zvinoenderana nenzvimbo yakafara yehupfumi iyo inoonawo vanoita sarudzo sevane musoro. The yemazuva ano portfolio theory uye inoshanda musika hypothesis ndiwo dzidziso mbiri dzinonyanya kutaurwa pamusoro pekudyara kwechinyakare.

Ose ari maviri anoita nhevedzano yefungidziro pamusoro pekuita sarudzo yekuita. Pakati peizvi pane fungidziro yekuti vatengesi vanotsvaga kuwedzera kudzoka uye kuti vanoisa mari vane njere. Behavioral investing theory inoongorora chokwadi chekuti vatengesi havana musoro.

Iyo zvakare inofunga nezvekukurudzira kwakasiyana kwevanoisa mari kuita sarudzo. Kumwero wakati, izvi zvinotsanangura zvimwe mutsauko pakati pemhando dzemari nemhedzisiro chaiyo.

Kana iwe uchinzwisisa zvemari psychology, ichakubatsira iwe kunzwisisa zvimwe kukanganisa mune zvemari yechinyakare. Iwe zvakare unozonyanya kuziva nezve yako yekuziva kusarura uye zvikanganiso zvaunogona kuita semuridzi.

Munda wekudyara kwehuwandu unoedzawo kubatanidza mhedzisiro yepasirese, pane dzidziso, mukuita sarudzo.

🥀 Behavioral Finance vs Behavioral Economics

Behavioral finance ine chekuita nekuti pfungwa nemagariro zvinokanganisa sei kuita sarudzo kunyanya mumisika yemari. Behavioral economics inotsvaga zvakawanda zvakafanana "zvisiri zvine musoro" zvinhu zvinogona kukanganisa kuita sarudzo.

Nekudaro, muchiitiko ichi mhedzisiro yavo pane yakakura siyana yesarudzo inodzidzwa. Izvi zvinogona kusanganisira kuti vatengi nevatungamiriri vebhizinesi vanoita sei sarudzo. Inosanganisirawo theory yemutambo uye evolutionary psychology.

Aya mazano anogona kushandiswa paunenge uchidzidza kana kufanotaura chero chiyero chehupfumi, kubva pakushandisa uye kuvimba kwevatengi kusvika kune chikwereti, kukura uye kushaikwa kwemabasa. Pamusoro pezvo, izwi rekuti psychology psychology rinowanzo shandiswa kureva imwe nyaya yakati siyanei.

Financial psychology inowanzoshandiswa mumunda wakafara wemari yemunhu. Izvi zvinosanganisira kuchengetedza, mari, zvikwereti, makadhi echikwereti uye inishuwarenzi. Vanoronga zvemari uye vanachipangamazano vane hanya nezvinhu izvi sezvavari nekuita sarudzo yekudyara.

🥀 Nzwisisa zvakarerekera pamaitiro emari

Kana hupfumi uye zvemari heuristics zvichitungamira kune zvisiri izvo kutonga uye zvitendero, yekuziva yakarerekera inoguma. Izvo zvinonyanya kuzivikanwa zvekusaziva zvinosanganisira:

Self-attribution bias: tichitenda kuti mibairo yakanaka yekudyara imhaka yeunyanzvi uye mhedzisiro isingadikanwi inokonzerwa nerombo rakaipa.

Le Rumbidzo yakarerekera: nyatsoteerera kune ruzivo runosimbisa kutenda mune zvemari kana kuisa mari uye kufuratira chero ruzivo rwunopokana nazvo.

Representative bias: Kutenda kuti zvinhu zviviri kana zviitiko zvine hukama zvakanyanya kupfuura zvazviri.

Le Kuronga kusarura: Pindura kune mumwe mukana wezvemari unoenderana nemataurirwo auri kuitwa.

Anchor bias: ita kuti mubairo wekutanga kana nhamba yawasangana ikurudzire mafungiro ako.

Kurasika kuvenga: kuedza kunzvenga kurasikirwa pane kuona mabhindauko emari, kuitira kuti mari inodiwa kana mikana yekuwana mari inopotswa.

Izvi zvakarerekera uye heuristics izvo zvakabatsira kuzvigadzira zvinokanganisa hunhu hwevasisirisi, musika uye kutengesa psychology, zvikanganiso zvekuziva, uye kufunga kwepfungwa.

🥀 Investor maitiro

Kunyanya kuzvivimba, tarisiro yakanyanyisa, kurerekera kune yako pachako, kuronga rusaruro uye kuvenga kurasikirwa kazhinji kunokanganisa vatengesi. Zvose izvi zvinhu zvinotungamirira kune zvisina musoro pane kuisa pfungwa.

Business Psychology

Trading psychology inoreva mamiriro epfungwa uye manzwiro emutengesi anoona kubudirira kana kutadza kwekutengeserana. Assumption heuristics, yakadai seyakanaka mhedzisiro-yakavakirwa kuita sarudzo, anchoring bias, kurasikirwa aversion, uye kusimbiso yakarerekera, inogona kuburitsa zvishoma pane inodiwa yekudyara kana mhedzisiro yemari.

Market Psychology

Hunhu hwehupfumi uye hwemari heuristics uye kusarura kunokanganisa misika yehupfumi, musanganiswa unoshamisa wezvisarudzo zvakabatanidzwa uye zvakazvimirira zvemamiriyoni evanhu, vachizviitira ivo uye pachinzvimbo chemari kana makambani. Somugumisiro, misika yakawanda inokundikana kwemakore akawanda.

Nzwisisa izvo zvinokonzeresa anomalies mukuyerwa kwezvibatiso zvega uye stock market zvinogona kutungamirira kumusika uri nani.

Kukanganisa kwekuziva

Suboptimal zvemari kuita sarudzo mhedzisiro yekukanganisa kwekuziva, mazhinji acho ari nekuda kweheuristic uye anchoring, self-attribution, uye freming biases. Kuongorora zvakawanikwa muNeuroscience uye zvazvinoreva pakuita sarudzo dzemari pasi pemamiriro ekusava nechokwadi kunogona kutungamirira kune mamwe mazano ane njere ekuderedza kusarura kwevatengi uye kutonga kwemari.

kufunga mupfungwa

Vazhinji vatengesi vanotenda kuti heuristics yavo uye biases mienzaniso yekufunga kwakanaka kwesainzi uye nekudaro inofanira kushandiswa kuita sarudzo dzekudyara. Vanoshamiswa kuziva kuti vane mirangariro, kwete zvine mufungo.

🥀 Iwo Mutengo weIrrational Financial Behaviour

Behavioral finance inoona kuti vatengesi vane miganhu yekuzvidzora kwavo uye vanopesvedzerwa nemanzwiro avo, fungidziro uye maonero. Aya maitiro akarerekera uye asina musoro ane mari chaiyo.

Ivo vanobatsira account yemusiyano uripo pakati pezvinofanira kuwana vatengesi uye izvo zvavanogona kuenda nazvo kumba. DALBAR, kambani yekutsvagisa zvemari, yakaita zvidzidzo zvakawanda ichienzanisa mwero wevanodyara mari yekudzokera mukuita kwemusika.

Somuenzaniso, avhareji equity investor akawana avhareji yekudzoka kwepagore ye4,25% pamakore makumi maviri pakati pa20 na2000. Panguva imwe chete, iyo S&P 500 wakashanduka kusvika muna +6,06%.

Fixed-income investers vakasiyawo mari patafura, vachiwana 0,47% pamakore makumi maviri iwayo. Pamwe chete neyakajairwa bond index fund, iyo Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index, yakawana zvishoma kudarika 20% pagore.

Dai vanoisa mari vaine njere, zvinoita sekunge vaifanirwa kunge vakakwanisa kuswedera pedyo neS&P 500, kana kuipfuura kana vakada kuisa njodzi. Asi vakaita zvakaipa.

🥀 Pfungwa dzekutanga dzemaitiro emari

Sezvo rusaruro ruchigona kumuka nekuda kwezvikonzero zvakasiyana, nyanzvi dzinoshandisa maitiro emari pfungwa kuongorora chikonzero nemhedzisiro yekusarura uku. Nyanzvi dzinowanzo patsanura pfungwa dzemaitiro emari muzvikamu zvishanu izvi:

mental accounting

Mental accounting itsika yevanhu kuchengetedza uye kugovera mari kune zvimwe zvinangwa. Izvi zvinogona kuita kuti vanhu vaise hunhu hwakasiyana pamari yakafanana. Nekuti vanhu vanoisa mari nenzira dzakasiyana, zvinogona kutungamira kune zvisina musoro, kana zvisingaite, kuita kwemari.

Kuti vatsivise kuverenga kwepfungwa, nyanzvi dzezvemari dzakawanda dzinokurudzira vatengi vavo kuti vazive accounting yepfungwa uye vape kukosha kwakaenzana kuhuwandu hwezvinhu.

Maitiro emombe

Herd behaviour inoreva tsika yevanhu yekutevedzera zvisarudzo zvemari zvevamwe. Somuenzaniso, kana munhu akacherechedza kuti vamwe vari kuisa mari mune chimwe chiito, zvinogona kuvakurudzira kuita zvimwe chetezvo. Nyanzvi dzinopupurira pfungwa iyi munzvimbo dzakawanda dzenzanga, asi inonyanya kuwanda mukusarudza kwemari.

Dzimwe nguva kana maitiro emombe akanganisa munhu, zvinokanganisa kugona kwavo kuita sarudzo ine ruzivo, nekuti maitiro emombe anoita kuti vanhu vafunge kuti vamwe vanhu vari kuita tsvakiridzo yesarudzo dzavo, vachivasvetukirawo nhanho.

mukaha wepfungwa

Mukaha wepfungwa unotsanangura apo manyawi anofambisa sarudzo dzemari dzemunhu. Mune zvemari, manzwiro anowanzoita chisikwa chepfungwa kufunganya, makaro, manyawi, uye kutya. Kukanganisa mupfungwa kunogona kukanganisa kukwanisa kwemunhu kuita sarudzo dzezvemari dzakanakisisa. Naizvozvo, nyanzvi dzezvemari dzinowanzoedza kupa zano rine musoro kune vatengi vavo panzvimbo.

Anchoring

Pfungwa yeanchoring inoongorora izvo munhu anogadzika sarudzo dzemari pazviri. Kazhinji izvi zvinoreva kugovera kukosha kune zvemari zvinhu zvichibva pane yakatarwa referensi point, senge mutengo wepakati. Semuyenzaniso, kana mutengesi achiona kuti imwe mari inotengeswa pa $ 100, vanogona kushandisa iyo mutengo wekutenga sechiratidzo chekuona kukosha kwechokwadi kwemari. Izvi zvinoita kuti vanhu vasateerere zvimwe zviratidzo zvekukosha.

Kuzvida

Kuzvida (self-attribution) itsika yokuita zvisarudzo zvichibva pakuwandisa kwehunyanzvi hwako. Dzimwe nyanzvi dzezvemari dzekuzvibata dzinoona kuzvipa senzira yekusabatana kwemanzwiro.

Izvi zvinogona kureva kuti munhu anoona ruzivo rwavo sepamusoro pemazinga evamwe nyanzvi. Vanhu vanokwanisa kudzivisa kuzvipa mhosva nekuteerera zano renyanzvi dzezvemari uye nekuferefeta zvingangobva pasarudzo vasati vazvipira kwairi.

🥀 Behavioral finance ibasa rinokura

Behavioral finance ikozvino iri kuitwa mune zvemari chipangamazano bhizinesi modhi uye nevatengi kubatikana maitiro. For vaongorori vezvemari, mamaneja emidziyo uye nzira yekudyara pachayo, maitiro emari ari kuwedzera kukosha sehwaro hwenzira yekudyara.

Ikozvino zvinokwanisika kuwana zita rekuita mari yekuzvibata. Ichi chinhu chekufunga kana iwe uchida kunzwisisa misika kana kugona semupi wemazano wezvemari. Chakanaka kuronga mari kukubatsira kuti.

mhedziso

Behavioral finance inoratidza kuti vanhu havangoite zvisarudzo zvavo zvichibva pakuongorora zvine musoro kweruzivo rwese. Izvi zvinogona kutungamirira kutama kubva pamutengo wakakodzera wemari yekambani yega, uye misika yose panguva iyo mitengo yemasheya iri pamwe chete yakakwirira kwazvo kana yakaderera zvikuru.

Kunyatsonzwisisa kwese kwese kwakasiyana maitiro akarerekera uye zvinogona kukanganisa maitiro emari hazvidiwe padanho rino, asi mazwi nemafungiro anokurukurwa muchinyorwa chino anogona kuoneka mumubvunzo webvunzo. Asi usati waenda, heino kosi yekudzidziswa ichakudzidzisa kutengesa mazano paInternet. Dzvanya pano kuti uitenge.