Zvese zvaunoda kuti uzive nezve stock market mutengo kusagadzikana 

Volatility ishoko rekudyara rinotsanangura kana musika kana chengetedzo ikasangana nenguva isingafungidzike uye dzimwe nguva inongoerekana yachinja mutengo. Vanhu vanowanzo funga nezvekusagadzikana kana mitengo iri kudonha. Asi kusagadzikana kunogonawo kureva kuwedzera kwemutengo kamwe kamwe. Kunyatsotaura, volatility chiyero chekupararira kwakatenderedza zvinoreva kana avhareji yekudzoka kwechengetedzo.

Volatility inogona kuyerwa uchishandisa standard deviation, iyo inoratidza kuti mutengo wemasheya wakabatanidzwa zvakadii zvakapoteredza zvinoreva kana kufamba pakati (MA). Kana mitengo yanyatsobatanidzwa, mwero kutsauka kwakaderera. Kana mitengo ichiparadzaniswa zvakanyanya, kutsauka kwechiyero kwakakosha.

Muchinyorwa chino, tiri kutaura nezve musika wemasheya. handeyi

Chii chinokonzera kusagadzikana?

Pane zvinhu zvakawanda zvinogona kukonzera asset mutengo kusagadzikana mumusika. Muchikamu chino, tinopa zvishoma zvezvinhu izvi. Verenga kusvika kumagumo.

1. Zvinhu zvezvematongerwo enyika uye zvehupfumi

Hurumende dzinoita basa guru mukugadzirisa maindasitiri uye dzinogona kukanganisa hupfumi kana dzichiita sarudzo pamusoro pezvibvumirano zvekutengeserana, mitemo uye mutemo. Zvese kubva pakutaura kusvika kusarudzo zvinogona kukonzera kuita pakati pevanoisa mari, izvo zvinokanganisa mitengo yemasheya.

Economic data inoitawo basa, nekuti kana hupfumi huri kuita zvakanaka, vatengesi vanowanzoita zvakanaka. Mishumo yemwedzi nemwedzi yebasa, dhata rekukwira kwemitengo, nhamba dzemashandisirwo evatengi, uye kuverenga kwekota kweGDP kunogona kukanganisa kuita kwemusika. Nekune rumwe rutivi, kana izvi zvikasasangana nezvinotarisirwa pamusika, misika inogona kuwedzera kushanduka.

2. Indasitiri uye Sector Factors

Zviitiko zvakanangana zvinogona kukonzera kusagadzikana mukati meindasitiri kana chikamu. Muchikamu chemafuta, somuenzaniso, chiitiko chikuru chemamiriro ekunze munharaunda huru inogadzira mafuta chinogona kukonzera mitengo yemafuta kukwira.

Nekuda kweizvozvo, mitengo yemasheya emakambani ane chekuita nekugoverwa kwemafuta inogona kukwira, senge munhu angatarisira kuti vabatsirike kubva, nepo mitengo yeavo vane mitengo yakakwira yemafuta mubhizinesi ravo inogona kudonha.

Saizvozvo, kuwedzera kwekutonga kwehurumende mune imwe indasitiri kunogona kukonzera mitengo yemasheya kudonha, nekuda kwekuwedzera kuteedzera uye mutengo wevashandi unogona kukanganisa muhoro wemangwana kukura.

3. Kuita kwekambani

Volatility haisi nguva dzose market-wide uye anogona kunetseka muridzi wega. Nhau dzakanaka, dzakadai semushumo wakasimba wemari kana chigadzirwa chitsva chinokwezva vatengi, zvinogona kuita kuti vatengesi vafare nekambani. Kana vatengesi vazhinji vari kutsvaga kuzvitenga, kuwedzera uku kudiwa kunogona kubatsira kukwidza mutengo wemasheya zvakanyanya.

Kusiyana neizvi, kurangarira kwechigadzirwa, kutyora kwedata, kana hunhu husina kunaka hwekutonga zvese zvinogona kukuvadza mutengo wemasheya sezvo vanoisa mari vachitengesa masheya avo. Zvichienderana nehukuru hwekambani, kuita kwakanaka uku kana kwakashata kunogonawo kuve nekukanganisa pamusika wakafara.

Mhando dzekusagadzikana

Volatility ndechimwe chezvinhu izvo vanoisa mari mumisika yemari vanoongorora kana vachiita sarudzo. Pane nzira mbiri dzakakosha dzekusagadzikana, imwe neimwe ine zvayakanakira nezvayakaipira:

Zvinoreva volatility

Izwi rinoreva kushanduka rinotsanangura kufungidzirwa kushanduka kweasset uye chinhu chakajairika chekutengesa sarudzo. Implied volatility inoratidza kuti musika unoona sei panofanirwa kuve nekusagadzikana mune ramangwana, asi haifanotaura mafambiro ayo mutengo weasset uchafamba.

Kazhinji, iyo asset inoreva kushanduka inokwira mumusika webheya nekuti vatengesi vazhinji vanotarisira kuti mutengo wayo urambe uchidonha nekufamba kwenguva.

Inodzikira mukati musika wemombe nekuti vatengesi vanotenda kuti mutengo unozokwira nekufamba kwenguva. Izvi zvinokonzerwa nekutenda kwakajairwa kuti misika yemabheya ine njodzi kupfuura misika yemombe.

Zvinoreva volatility ndeimwe yemametrics anoshandiswa nevatengesi kufungidzira mafambiro emitengo emangwana easset zvichibva pane zvakati wandei zvekufungidzira.

Zvakaitika / nhoroondo kusagadzikana

Realized volatility, inozivikanwawo senhoroondo yekusagadzikana, inzira yekuyera nenhamba kuti kudzoka kwechimwe chinhu kana musika index inoparadzirwa sei kana ichiongororwa nekufamba kwenguva.

Kazhinji, kusasimba kwenhoroondo kunoyerwa nekumisikidza kutsauka kweavhareji yemudziyo wemari kubva pamutengo weavhareji pane imwe nguva yakatarwa.

The standard kutsauka inoita kunge iri chiyero chinonyanyozivikanwa chekusagadzikana, kunyangwe paine dzimwe nzira dzinoshandiswa kuverenga iyi metric. Chengetedzo ine njodzi ndeiya ine yakakwira nhoroondo yekusagadzikana kukosha kunyangwe mune mamwe marudzi ekutengesa izvi hazvireve chinhu chakashata sezvo bullish uye bearish mamiriro angave ane njodzi.

Kupesana nezviyero zviviri izvi, nhoroondo (retrospective) kusagadzikana inoshanda seyereferensi chiyero,

Kana zviyero zviviri izvi zvichiratidza hunhu hwakafanana, saka asset inoonekwa seine mutengo wakaringana zvichienderana nenhoroondo dzekare. Nechikonzero ichi, vatengesi vanotarisa kutsauka kubva pachiyero ichi kuti vaone kana midziyo yakawandisa kana kusakosheswa.

Iyo Yakajairwa Kutsauka Modhi yeKukoshesa Kwemari Kusagadzikana

Standard deviation chiyero chinoshandiswa kuona huwandu hwekupararira kana kusiyanisa pakati peavhareji yemutengo weasethi yemari, zvichiita kuti ive nzira yakakodzera yekuyera kushanduka kwemusika. Kazhinji kutaura, kupararira mutsauko pakati peavhareji kukosha kweasset uye kukosha kwayo kwechokwadi.

Iyo yakakwirira kupararira kana kusiyanisa, iyo yakakwirira chiyero chekutsauka. Iko kudiki kusiyanisa, kudiki kweiyo standard kutsauka. Vaongorori vanowanzoshandisa kutsauka kwakajairwa senzira yekuyera njodzi inotarisirwa uye kuona ukuru hwekufamba kwemutengo.

Paunenge uchiverenga chiyero chekutsauka kwekusagadzikana, kusiyanisa kwemutengo we data seti yechinhu chiri pasi peasset inofanira kutorwa. The standard deviation is square root of the musiyano.

Nezvinangwa zvekufananidzira, tichatarisa mutengo wechinhu chiri pasi wakakwira zvakafanana $1 kusvika $10 munguva dze10 dzekutengesa. The standard deviation ichatorwa mumatanho anotevera:

• Verenga avhareji yemazuva gumi ekutengesa. Izvi zvinoitwa nekuwedzera mitengo ($1, $2… kusvika $10) wobva waigovanisa negumi (munyaya iyi, nhamba yese yemibairo). Huwandu hwemakumi mashanu neshanu hwakakamurwa negumi huchave 5,5 $.
• Sarudza kutsauka kubva pazvinoreva panguva imwe neimwe. Ndiwo musiyano pakati pemutengo wekuvhara uye wepakati. Somuenzaniso, pazuva rechinomwe, mutengo we 7 $ inotsauka kubva paavhareji $5,5 kubva pa2,5.
• Chikwereta kutsauka kweimwe nguva. Nguva dzese dzine zvakaipa dzakatsauka dzichabviswa nekudzipwanya.
• Wedzera kutsauka kwakapetwa. Maererano nemuenzaniso wedu, nhamba ndeye 82,5 $
• Gurai nhamba nenhamba yenguva, munyaya iyi, 10. Izvi zvichava 8,25 $.
• Kutsauswa kwechiyero ndicho midzi yenhamba iyi. Muchiitiko ichi, kutsauka kwakajairika ndiko $ 2,75, iyo inoratidza kugoverwa kwemitengo yakatenderedza mutengo weavhareji, izvo zvinopa vatengesi nzwisiso mukutsauka kunobvira pakati pemutengo weasset neavhareji.

Sekuverengera kuri pamusoro apa kunoratidza, kutsauka kwakajairwa seyero yengozi inotora kuti data seti inotevera kugoverwa kwakajairika, kana izvo zvinozivikanwa sebhero curve.

Mumamiriro ezvinhu akadaro, sepamusoro, 68% data ichawira mukati mekutsauka kumwe chete; 95% achange ari maviri standard deviations uye 99,7% data inowira mukati mematatu akajairwa kutsauka.

Asi pane zvimwe zvipimo pakushandisa chiyero chekutsauka seyero yekusagadzikana. Kune kutanga, mitengo kana kudzoka haina kumbobvira yafanana, uye inomisikidzwa nenguva dzekuwedzera kwakanyanya mumativi ese.

Izvi zvinoreva kuti chiyero chekutsauka pachacho chinogona kuchinjika zvichienderana nenguva dzakatorwa mukuverenga panguva yekuverenga.

Kune zvakare nzira ye beta (β) kuyera kana kuverenga kushanduka. Munzira iyi, kusasimba kwechinhu chiri pasi pechinhu chinoyerwa maererano nezvimwe zvinhu zvine hukama.

Somuenzaniso, Apple stock volatility inogona kuyerwa zvichienderana nekusagadzikana kwese kwemamwe matekinoroji ematekinoroji kana kunyangwe kupesana neiyo yakazara benchmark stock index.

Benefits of Market Volatility

Volatility haisi nguva dzose chinhu chakaipa. Kugadziriswa kwemusika kunogonawo dzimwe nguva kupa mapoinzi ekupinda ayo vanoisa mari vanogona kutora mukana nawo.

Kana munhu anodyara mari aine mari uye akamirira kuisa mari mumusika wemasheya, kugadzirisa kwemusika kunogona kupa mukana wekudyara mari iyoyo nemutengo wakaderera. Kuderera kwekuderera kwemisika kunopawo vatengesi vanotenda kuti misika ichaita zvakanaka nekufamba kwenguva mukana wekutenga mamwe migove mumakambani avanoda, asi nemitengo yakaderera.

Muenzaniso wakapfava pamwe investor anogona kutenga 5O? $0, stock yaive yakakosha $100 nguva pfupi yapfuura. Kutenga masheya nenzira iyi kunodzikisira mutengo wako wepakati pachikamu chimwe nechimwe, izvo zvinobatsira kuvandudza mashandiro epotfolio yako kana misika inozodzoka.

Maitiro acho akafanana kana stock iri kukwira nekukurumidza. Vanoisa mari vanogona kuita purofiti nekutengesa, mari yacho inogona kuiswa mune dzimwe nzvimbo dzinopa mikana iri nani.

Nekunzwisisa kusagadzikana uye zvinokonzeresa, vanoisa mari vanogona kutora mukana wemikana yekudyara yavanopa kuti vaunze zvirinani zvenguva refu.