Yonke into okufuneka uyazi malunga nokuguquguquka kwexabiso lesitokhwe

Ukungaguquguquki kwexabiso lempahla ligama lotyalo-mali elichaza xa imarike okanye ukhuseleko lufumana amaxesha angalindelekanga kwaye ngamanye amaxesha amaxabiso ahamba ngokukhawuleza. Abantu bahlala becinga kuphela ngokuguquguquka xa amaxabiso esihla. Kodwa ukuguquguquka kunokubhekisa ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso ngesiquphe. Ukuthetha ngokuthe ngqo, ukuguquguquka ngumlinganiselo wokusasazwa malunga ne-avareji okanye imbuyekezo yokhuseleko.

I-Volatility inokulinganiswa ngokusebenzisa ukutenxa okusemgangathweni, nto leyo ebonisa ukuba ixabiso lesitokhwe lisondele kangakanani kumndilili ophakathi okanye ohambayo (MA). Xa amaxabiso ebekwe ngokwamaqela, ukutenxa okusemgangathweni kuncinci. Xa amaxabiso esahlulwe kakhulu, ukutenxa okusemgangathweni kukhulu. Kweli nqaku, sithetha ngokusisiseko malunga nokuguquguquka kwemarike yemasheya. Makhe siye

Yintoni ebangela ukuguquguquka?

Kukho izinto ezininzi ezinokubangela ukuguquguquka kwexabiso le-asethi kwimarike. Kweli nqaku, sinikela nje ezimbalwa zezi zinto. Funda kude kube sekupheleni.

1. Imiba yezopolitiko nezoqoqosho

Oorhulumente badlala indima enkulu ekulawuleni amashishini kwaye banokuchaphazela uqoqosho xa besenza izigqibo malunga nezivumelwano zorhwebo, imithetho kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo. Yonke into ukusuka kwiintetho ukuya kunyulo inokuxhokonxa ukusabela phakathi kwabatyali-mali, okuchaphazela amaxabiso esitokhwe.

Idatha yezoqoqosho nayo idlala indima, kuba xa uqoqosho luhamba kakuhle, abatyali-mali bavame ukusabela kakuhle. Iingxelo zenyanga zengqesho, idatha yokunyuka kwamaxabiso, amanani enkcitho yabathengi kunye nokubalwa kwe-GDP yekota konke kunokuchaphazela ukusebenza kweemarike. Kwelinye icala, ukuba ezi zinto azifikeleli kulindelo lwemarike, iimarike zingaguquka.

2. Imiba yoShishino kunye neCandelo

Iziganeko ezithile zinokubangela ukuguquguquka ngaphakathi kwishishini okanye kwicandelo. Kwicandelo leoli, umzekelo, isiganeko esikhulu semozulu kummandla omkhulu wokuvelisa ioli sinokubangela ukuba ixabiso leoli linyuke. Ngenxa yoko, amaxabiso eenkampani ezidityaniswe nokuhanjiswa kweoyile zinokunyuka, njengoko umntu unokulindela ukuba azuze, ngelixa amaxabiso abo baneendleko eziphezulu zeoyile kwishishini labo banokuwa.

Ngokufanayo, ukunyuswa kolawulo lukarhulumente kwishishini elithile kunokubangela ukuba amaxabiso esitokhwe ehle, ngenxa yokuthotyelwa kokuthotyelwa kunye neendleko zabasebenzi ezinokuchaphazela ukukhula kwemivuzo yexesha elizayo.

3. Ukusebenza kweshishini

I-Volatility ayisoloko kwinqanaba lemarike kwaye inokukhathazeka ubunikazi bodwa. Iindaba ezilungileyo, njengengxelo yomvuzo onamandla okanye imveliso entsha ebhenela abathengi, inokwenza abatyali-mali bajabule malunga nenkampani. Ukuba abatyali-mali abaninzi bajonge ukuyithenga, le mfuno yonyukileyo inokunceda ukutyhala ixabiso lesitokhwe ngokukhawuleza.

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukukhumbula imveliso, ukuphulwa kwedatha okanye ukuziphatha kakubi kokulawula konke kunokulimaza ixabiso lesitokhwe njengoko abatyali-mali bathengisa izabelo zabo. Ngokuxhomekeke kubungakanani benkampani, le ntsebenzo intle okanye embi inokuba nefuthe kwimarike ebanzi.

Iintlobo zokuguquguquka

I-Volatility yenye yezinto ezihlalutya abatyali-mali kwiimarike zemali xa besenza izigqibo. Kukho iindlela ezimbini eziphambili zokuguquguquka, nganye inezibonelelo zayo kunye nokungalunganga:

Intsingiselo yokuguquguquka

Igama elithi ukuguquguquka okuxeliweyo lichaza ukuguquguquka okuqikelelweyo kwe-asethi kwaye luphawu oluqhelekileyo lokuthengisa okukhethwa kukho. Ukuguquguquka okuchazwayo kubonisa indlela imarike ebona ngayo apho ukuguquguquka kulindeleke ukuba kube khona kwixesha elizayo, kodwa ayiqikelele ukuba ixabiso le-asethi liya kuhamba phi. Ngokuqhelekileyo, ukuguquguquka okuchazwayo kwe-asethi kuyanda kwimarike yeebhere kuba uninzi lwabatyali-mali balindele ukuba ixabiso layo liqhubeke nokuhla ngokuhamba kwexesha.

Iyancipha kwi imarike yenkomo kuba abarhwebi bakholelwa ukuba ixabiso liya kunyuka ngokuhamba kwexesha. Oku kungenxa yenkolelo eqhelekileyo yokuba iimarike zeebhere ngokwendalo zinomngcipheko kuneemarike zenkunzi. Intsingiselo yokuguquguquka yenye yeemetrics ezisetyenziswa ngabarhwebi ukuqikelela ukuguquguquka kwexabiso elizayo kwe-asethi ngokusekelwe kwizinto ezininzi eziqikelelwayo.

Kuqondwa / ukungazinzi kwembali

Ukuguquguquka okubonakalayo, okwakwaziwa ngokuba kukuguquguquka kwembali, yindlela yokulinganisa ngokweenkcukacha ukuba imbuyekezo ye-asethi ethile okanye isalathiso semarike isasazwa njani xa ihlalutywa ngexesha elithile. Ngokuqhelekileyo, ukuguquguquka kwembali kulinganiswa ngokuseka umndilili wokutenxa kwisixhobo semali ukusuka kwixabiso eliphakathi kwixabiso lexesha elithile.

Ukutenxa okusemgangathweni ithande ukuba ngowona mlinganiselo uqhelekileyo wokuguquguquka okubonakalayo, nangona kukho ezinye iindlela ezisetyenziswayo ukubala le metric. Ukhuseleko olunobungozi lolo lunexabiso eliphezulu lokuguquguquka kwembali nangona kwezinye iindidi zentengiselwano oku akuyomfuneko ukuba ibe yinto engalunganga kuba zombini iimeko ze-bullish kunye ne-bearish zinokuba yingozi.

Xa kuthelekiswa nale milinganiselo mibini, ukuguquguquka kwembali (okubuyela emva) kusebenza njengomlinganiselo wereferensi. Ukuba iimethrikhi ezimbini zibonisa amaxabiso afanayo, i-asethi ithathwa njengexabiso elifanelekileyo ngokusekelwe kwimigangatho yembali. Ngenxa yesi sizathu, abarhwebi bajonge ukutenxa kule bhalansi ukuze baqinisekise ukuba ii-asethi zixatyiswe kakhulu okanye azixabisekanga.

Imodeli yokutenxa esemgangathweni yokuvavanya ukungazinzi kwezemali

Ukutenxa emgangathweni ngumlinganiselo osetyenziselwa ukumisela ngokweenkcukacha inqanaba losasazo okanye ukuguquguquka malunga nomndilili wexabiso le-asethi eyimali, oko kuyenza ibe yindlela efanelekileyo yokulinganisa ukuguquguquka kweemarike. Ngokubanzi, ukusasazwa ngumahluko phakathi komndilili wexabiso le-asethi kunye nexabiso layo lokwenyani.

Ukuphakama kokusasazeka okanye ukuguquguquka, okukhona kuphezulu ukutenxa okusemgangathweni. Incinci inguquko, encinci ukutenxa okusemgangathweni. Abahlalutyi bavame ukusebenzisa ukuphambuka okusemgangathweni njengendlela yokulinganisa umngcipheko olindelekileyo kwaye banqume ukubaluleka kokunyakaza kwexabiso. Xa ubala ukutenxa komgangatho wokuguquguquka, ukuhluka kweseti yedatha yexabiso le-asethi ephantsi kufuneka kuthathwe. Ukutenxa okusemgangathweni yingcambu yomahluko.

Ngeenjongo zomzekeliso, siya kuthathela ingqalelo ixabiso le-asethi esisiseko elinyuke ngokufanayo nge $ 1 ukuya kwi- $ 10 ngamaxesha orhwebo ali-10. Ukutenxa okusemgangathweni kuya kwenziwa kula manyathelo alandelayo:

• Bala umyinge weentsuku ezili-10 zokurhweba. Oku kwenziwa ngokudibanisa amaxabiso ($1, $2… ukuya $10) emva koko ukwahlula ngo-10 (kule meko, inani elipheleleyo lamabhaso). Isambuku sama-55 sahlulwe ngo-10 siya kuba 5,5 $.
• Qinisekisa ukutenxa kumyinge wexesha ngalinye. Ngumahluko phakathi kwexabiso lokuvala kunye nomyinge. Umzekelo, ngomhla we-7, ixabiso le 7 $ itenxa kumndilili we $ 5,5 ukusuka 2,5.
• Isikwere sokutenxa kwixesha ngalinye. Onke amaxesha anokutenxa okubi aya kupheliswa ngokuwaphindaphinda.
• Yongeza izitenxa eziphindwe kabini. Ngokomzekelo wethu, isimbuku sithi 82,5 $
• Yahlula isixa ngenani lamaxesha, kule meko, 10. Oku kuya kuba 8,25 $.
• Umtembuko osemgangathweni yingcambu yeli nani. Kule meko, ukutenxa okusemgangathweni $ 2,75, ebonisa ukuhanjiswa kwamaxabiso malunga nexabiso eliphakathi, inika abarhwebi ukuqonda ukuba ixabiso le-asethi linokutenxa kangakanani kumndilili.

Njengoko ubalo olungentla lubonisa, ukutenxa okusemgangathweni njengomlinganiselo womngcipheko kuthatha ukuba isethi yedatha ilandela ukusabalalisa okuqhelekileyo, okanye into ebizwa ngokuba yintsimbi yentsimbi. Kwimeko enjalo, njengangasentla, 68% idatha iya kuwela phakathi kokutenxa okusemgangathweni omnye; 95% ziya kuba kubini ukutenxa okusemgangathweni kunye ne-99,7% idatha iya kuwela phakathi kwezitenxo ezisemgangathweni ezintathu.

Kodwa kukho imida ethile ekusebenziseni ukutenxa okusemgangathweni njengomlinganiselo wokuguquguquka. Ukuqala, amaxabiso okanye izivuno azifani, kwaye ziphawulwa ngamaxesha okunyuka okubukhali kuwo omabini amacala. Oku kuthetha ukuba ukutenxa emgangathweni ngokwawo kungaguquguquka ngokuxhomekeke kumaxesha athatyathiweyo xa kubalwa. Kukho kwakhona la indlela ye-beta (β) ukulinganisa okanye ukubala ukuguquguquka. Ngale ndlela, ukuguquguquka kwe-asethi engaphantsi kulinganiswa ngokunxulumene nezinye ii-asethi ezinxulumeneyo.

Ngokomzekelo, Ukungaguquguquki kwesitokhwe se-Apple kunokulinganiswa ngokumalunga nokuguquguquka kukonke kwezinye izitokhwe zetekhnoloji okanye isalathiso sesitokhwe esibanzi.

Iinzuzo zokuguquguquka kweMarike

I-Volatility ayisoloko iyinto embi. Ukulungiswa kweemarike ngamanye amaxesha kunokubonelela ngeendawo zokungena apho abatyali-mali banokuthabatha ithuba. Ukuba umtyali-mali unemali kwaye ulindele ukutyala imali kwimarike yemasheya, ukulungiswa kweemarike kunokubonelela ngethuba lokutyala loo mali ngexabiso eliphantsi. Ukuguquguquka kweemarike ezisezantsi kwakhona kunika abatyali-mali abakholelwa ukuba iimarike ziya kwenza kakuhle kwixesha elide ithuba lokuthenga izabelo ezongezelelweyo kwiinkampani ezithandayo, kodwa ngamaxabiso aphantsi.

Umzekelo olula mhlawumbi umtyali-mali unokuthenga 5O? $0, isitokhwe esasixabisa i-100 yeedola kungekudala ngaphambili. Ukuthenga izitokhwe ngale ndlela kwehlisa ixabiso eliphakathi kwesabelo ngasinye, nto leyo enceda ekuphuculeni ukusebenza kwepotfoliyo yakho xa iimarike ziphinda zibuyela emva. Inkqubo iyafana xa isitokhwe sinyuka ngokukhawuleza. Abatyali-mali banokuzuza ngokuthengisa, ingeniso enokuthi ityalwe kwezinye iindawo ezibonelela ngamathuba angcono.

Ngokuqonda ukuguquguquka kunye nezizathu zako, abatyali-mali banokusebenzisa amathuba otyalo-mali abawanikezelayo ukwenza imbuyekezo engcono yexesha elide.