Konke malunga nezezimali zokuziphatha

Kutheni nabatyali-zimali abanamava bethenga kade kwaye bathengise kwangoko? Kutheni iinkampani ezineesimboli zesitokhwe ezifika kwangethuba kwialfabhethi zinenzuzo encinci enokulinganiswa kunezo zifika emva kwexesha? Omnye umbuzo ngulo:  Kutheni abantu besala ukutsala imali kwi-a i-akhawunti yokugcina, naxa bentyumpantyumpeka ematyaleni? Ukuphendula le mibuzo, kufuneka sijonge kwisayikholoji yabatyali-mali kwaye sifunde ngokuziphatha kwabo. Ngokwenjenjalo, nenza oko kubizwayo imali yokuziphatha.

Iimali zokuziphatha ziphuhliswe ngokuyinxenye ekuphenduleni kwi-hypothesis yemarike esebenzayo. Ithiyori edumileyo yokuba imarike yemasheya ihamba ngokuqiqiweyo nangokuqikelelwayo. Izabelo ngokubanzi zirhweba ngexabiso lazo elifanelekileyo, kwaye la maxabiso abonisa lonke ulwazi olufumanekayo kumntu wonke. Awukwazi ukubetha imarike, kuba yonke into oyaziyo sele sele okanye iza kubonakala ngokukhawuleza kumaxabiso emarike.

Iqela le Finance de Demain idibene ukuze ikuzise yonke into oyifunayo malunga nezezimali zokuziphatha. Ngapha koko, ukuqonda kwengqondo yezemali kunye nezezimali zokuziphatha kunokuba luncedo ngeendlela ezimbini.

okokuqala, ukuqonda iindlela ezahlukeneyo ukwenza kwethu izigqibo kunokuchaphazeleka kunokusinceda siphephe imigibe eqhelekileyo yemarike yemasheya.

Okwesibini, ukuqonda indlela yokuziphatha kwemali yabanye abathathi-nxaxheba kwimarike kunokusinceda ukuba sichonge amathuba. Elona xesha lilungileyo lokungena kurhwebo olutsha okanye ukwenza utyalo-mali kuxa abanye benza iimpazamo.

Kodwa ngaphambi kokuba uqale, funda ngakumbi imali yequantum.

Makhe siye

🥀 Yintoni imali yokuziphatha?

Izimali zokuziphatha kuphononongo lweempembelelo zengqondo kubatyali-mali kunye neemarike zemali. Ngokwenene,imali yokuziphatha imalunga nokuchonga kunye nokucacisa ukungasebenzi kunye nokungamaxabiso kwiimarike zemali. Isebenzisa imifuniselo kunye nophando ukubonisa ukuba abantu kunye neemarike zemali azisoloko zinengqiqo kwaye izigqibo abazenzayo zisoloko zingalunganga.

Ukuba uyazibuza ukuba iimvakalelo kunye nokuthambekela kuchaphazela njani amaxabiso esitokhwe, izibonelelo zemali zokuziphatha iimpendulo kunye neengcaciso.

Izimali zokuziphatha zivela kumsebenzi weengqondo zengqondo uDaniel Kahneman kunye no-Amos Tversky kunye noqoqosho uRobert J. Shiller kwiminyaka ye-1970 kunye ne-1980. Basebenzisa i-pervasive, deep-rooted, subconscious biases kunye ne-heuristics kwindlela abantu abathatha ngayo izigqibo zemali.

Ngexesha elifanayo, abaphandi bezemali baqala ukucebisa ukuba i-hypothesis yemarike esebenzayo, ithiyori eyaziwayo yokuba i-stock market ihamba ngendlela enengqiqo kwaye iqikelelwe, ayisoloko iphakama ukuze ihlolwe. Enyanisweni, iimarike zigcwele ukungasebenzi kakuhle ngenxa yeengcamango eziphosakeleyo zabatyali-mali malunga nexabiso kunye nomngcipheko.

Kule minyaka ilishumi idlulileyo, iimali zokuziphatha ziye zamkelwa kuluntu lwezemfundo nakwezemali njengenxalenye yoqoqosho lokuziphatha oluphenjelelwa yisayikholoji yezoqoqosho.

Ngokubonisa indlela, nini, kwaye kutheni ukuziphatha kuphambuka kwizinto ezilindelweyo ezisengqiqweni, imali yokuziphatha ibonelela ngemodeli yokunceda wonke umntu enze izigqibo ezingcono, ezinengqondo ngakumbi malunga nezimali zabo.

🥀 Imali yezeNtu yeVS yokuziphatha

Uninzi lwethiyori yezemali ephuhliswe kumashumi eminyaka edlulileyo iphatha abatyali-mali njengengqiqo. Oku kuhambelana nenkalo ebanzi yezoqoqosho ekwajonga abenzi bezigqibo njengabanengqiqo. I ithiyori yepotfoliyo yale mihla kunye nengqikelelo yemalike esebenzayo zezona thiyori zikhankanyiweyo malunga notyalo lwemveli.

Bobabini benza uthotho lweengqikelelo malunga nokwenza izigqibo zotyalo-mali. Phakathi kwezi ziingqikelelo zokuba abatyali-mali bafuna ukwandisa imbuyekezo nokuba abatyali-mali banengqiqo. Ithiyori yotyalo-mali lokuziphatha iphonononga inyani yokuba abatyali-mali abanangqiqo.

Ikwathathela ingqalelo inkuthazo ezahlukeneyo zabatyali-mali ukuba benze izigqibo. Ukusa kumlinganiselo othile, oku kucacisa ezinye iyantlukwano phakathi kweemodeli zemali kunye neziphumo ezizizo.

Ukuba uyayiqonda ipsychology yezemali, iya kukunceda uqonde ezinye iziphene kwimali yemveli. Uya kukwazi ngakumbi ukuthambekela kwakho kwengqondo kunye neempazamo onokuthi uzenze njengomtyali-mali.

Intsimi yotyalo-mali lobungakanani ikwazama ukubandakanya iziphumo zehlabathi lokwenyani, endaweni yethiyori, ekwenzeni izigqibo.

🥀 Izimali zokuziphatha vs uQoqosho lokuziphatha

Iimali zokuziphatha zichaphazelekayo malunga nendlela izinto zengqondo kunye nezentlalo ezichaphazela ngayo ukwenza izigqibo ngokukodwa kwiimalike zemali. Uqoqosho lokuziphatha luphonononga izinto ezininzi ezifanayo "ezingenangqiqo" ezinokuchaphazela ukuthathwa kwezigqibo.

Nangona kunjalo, kule meko umphumo wabo kuluhlu olubanzi lwezigqibo lufundwa. Oku kunokubandakanya indlela abathengi kunye neenkokheli zoshishino ezithatha ngayo izigqibo. Ikwabandakanya ithiyori yomdlalo kunye nengqondo yendaleko.

Ezi ngcamango zingasetyenziswa xa kufundwa okanye kuqikelelwa phantse nawuphi na umlinganiselo wezoqoqosho, ukusuka kwinkcitho kunye nokuzithemba kwabathengi ukuya ematyaleni, ukukhula kunye nokungaqeshwa. Ukongeza, igama elithi psychology yezemali lihlala lisetyenziselwa ukubhekisa kwisihloko esahlukileyo kancinci.

Ingqondo yezemali isoloko isetyenziswa kwinkalo ebanzi yezemali zobuqu. Oku kubandakanya ukonga, iindleko, amatyala, amakhadi okuthenga ngetyala kunye ne-inshurensi. Abacwangcisi bezemali kunye nabacebisi baxhalabile ngezi zinto njengoko kunjalo ngokuthatha izigqibo ngotyalo-mali.

🥀 Qonda utyekelo lwemali yokuziphatha

Xa i-heuristics yezoqoqosho neyezemali ikhokelela kwizigwebo kunye neenkolelo ezingachanekanga, kubangelwa ukuthambekela kwengqondo. Ezona zinto zixhaphakileyo engqondweni zibandakanya:

Ukuzicingela ngokukhetha kwakho: ukukholelwa ukuba iziphumo ezilungileyo zotyalo-mali zisisiphumo sobuchule kunye neziphumo ezingathandekiyo zibangelwa ngamashwa.

Le Isiqinisekiso somkhethe: nikela ingqalelo enkulu kulwazi oluqinisekisa ukukholelwa kwezemali okanye kutyalo-mali kwaye ungahoyi naluphi na ulwazi oluchasayo.

Umelo cala: Ukukholelwa ukuba izinto ezimbini okanye iziganeko zisondelelene ngakumbi kunokuba zinjalo.

Le Icala lokuqulunqa: Phendula kwithuba elithile lemali ngokusekelwe kwindlela elibekwe ngayo.

I-Anchor bias: vumela ibhaso lokuqala okanye inani elifunyenweyo liphembelele ngokungafanelekanga uluvo lwakho.

Ukuthiya ilahleko: ukuzama ukuphepha ilahleko kunokuqaphela iinzuzo zotyalo-mali, ukuze utyalo-mali olunqwenelekayo okanye amathuba okuxhasa ngemali aphoswe.

Oku kuthambekela kunye ne-heuristics eye yanceda ukuyidala ichaphazela indlela abatyali-zimali abaziphatha ngayo, intengiso kunye nesayikholoji yokurhweba, iimpazamo zokuqonda, kunye nokuqiqa ngokweemvakalelo.

🥀 Ukuziphatha komtyali-mali

Ukuzithemba ngokugqithiseleyo, ukuba nethemba eligqithiseleyo, ukuzicingela ngokwakho, ukuqulunqa umkhethe kunye nokucaphukela ilahleko kudla ngokukhokelela abatyali-mali ekulahlekeni. Zonke ezi zinto zikhokelela ekubeni kungabikho ngqiqweni kunotyalo-mali olucingisisiweyo.

IPsychology yoShishino

I-psychology yokurhweba ibhekisela kwimeko yengqondo kunye neemvakalelo zomrhwebi ogqiba ukuphumelela okanye ukungaphumeleli korhwebo. I-Assumption heuristics, efana nokwenza izigqibo ezisekelwe kwisiphumo esilungileyo, i-anchoring bias, ukuchaswa kwelahleko, kunye nokuqinisekiswa kokuqinisekisa, kunokuvelisa ngaphantsi kotyalo-mali olunqwenelekayo okanye iziphumo zemali.

Market Psychology

I-heuristics yezoqoqosho kunye nezezimali zoluntu kunye nokuthambekela kuchaphazela iimarike zoqoqosho, umxube ongaqhelekanga wezigqibo ezihlangeneyo kunye nezizimeleyo zezigidi zabantu, abazenzela ngokwabo kwaye egameni leemali okanye iinkampani. Ngenxa yoko, iimarike ezininzi ziyasilela iminyaka emininzi.

Qonda ukuba yintoni ebangela i-anomalies kuqikelelo lwezibambiso zomntu ngamnye kunye ne imakethi yesitokhwe kunokukhokelela ekusebenzeni ngcono kweemarike.

Iimpazamo zengqondo

Ukuthathwa kwezigqibo kwezemali okugqwesileyo kusisiphumo seempazamo zokuqonda, uninzi lwazo ezibangelwa kukuxhamla kwindalo kunye ne-anchoring, ukuzicingela ngokwakho, kunye neeframing biases. Ukuphonononga okufunyenweyo kwi-neuroscience kunye neziphumo zabo ekuthathweni kwezigqibo zemali phantsi kweemeko zokungaqiniseki kunokukhokelela kwizicwangciso ezicacileyo zokunciphisa ukuxhatshazwa kwabaxhasi kunye nokulawulwa kwemali.

ukuqiqa ngokweemvakalelo

Abatyali-zimali abaninzi bakholelwa ukuba i-heuristics kunye nokuthambekela kwabo yimizekelo yengqiqo yenzululwazi kwaye ngoko kufuneka isetyenziswe kwizigqibo zotyalo-mali. Bamangaliswa kukufumanisa ukuba baneemvakalelo, abaqiqi.

🥀 Iindleko zokuziphatha ngokungekho ngqiqweni kwezeMali

Iimali zokuziphatha ziyaqaphela ukuba abatyali-mali banemida ekuzithibeni kwabo kwaye baphenjelelwa ziimvakalelo zabo, iintelekelelo kunye nemibono yabo. Ezi ziphatho zinomkhethe nezingekho ngqiqweni zineendleko zokwenene.

Bancedisa ekuphenduleni umahluko phakathi kwento abatyali-mali abafanele ukuyizuza kunye nento abalawula ukuya nayo ekhaya. I-DALBAR, inkampani yophando lwezemali, iqhube izifundo ezininzi ngokuthelekisa izinga labatyali-mali lokubuyela ekusebenzeni kweemarike.

Ngokomzekelo, umtyali-mali ophakathi ufumene imbuyekezo yonyaka eyi-4,25% kwiminyaka engama-20 phakathi kuka-2000 no-2019. I-S & P 500 inyuke nge-6,06%.

Abatyali-mali bengeniso esisigxina nabo bashiye imali etafileni, bafumana i-0,47% kule minyaka ye-20. Kunye nengxowa-mali yesalathiso sebhondi eqhelekileyo, iBloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index, izuze ngaphezulu kancinci kwe-5% ngonyaka.

Ukuba abatyali-mali babenengqiqo, kubonakala ukuba babekwazi ukusondela kakhulu kwi-S&P 500, okanye bade bayigqithise ukuba babezimisele ukuthatha umngcipheko omkhulu. Kodwa benza okubi ngakumbi.

🥀 Iingqikelelo ezisisiseko zemali yokuziphatha

Kuba ucalucalulo lunokuvela ngenxa yezizathu ezahlukeneyo, iingcali zisebenzisa iikhonsepthi zokuziphatha ngokwezemali ukuhlalutya unobangela kunye nesiphumo solu khetho. Iingcali zihlala zahlula iikhonsepthi zokuziphatha ngokwezemali kwezi ndidi zintlanu:

ukubala ngengqondo

Ubalo-mali lwengqondo lutyekelo lwabantu ngabanye ukugcina nokwaba imali ngeenjongo ezithile. Oku kunokubangela ukuba abantu babeke amaxabiso ahlukeneyo kwisixa esifanayo semali. Ngenxa yokuba abantu bahlula imali ngokwahlukileyo, kunokukhokelela kwizinto ezingenangqiqo, okanye ubuncinane ezingaqhelekanga, izenzo zemali.

Ukuhlawula i-accounting yengqondo, iingcali zezimali ezininzi zikhuthaza abathengi babo ukuba baqaphele ukubalwa kwemali yengqondo kwaye banike ixabiso elilinganayo kwiimali ezilinganayo ze-asethi.

Ukuziphatha komhlambi

Ukuziphatha komhlambi kubhekiselele kutyekelo lwabantu ngabanye ekuxeliseni izigqibo zemali zabanye. Ngokomzekelo, ukuba umntu uyaqaphela ukuba abanye batyala imali kwisenzo esithile, kunokubakhuthaza ukuba benze okufanayo. Iingcali zingqina le ngcamango kwiinkalo ezininzi zoluntu, kodwa ixhaphake kakhulu kwizigqibo zemali.

Ngamanye amaxesha xa ukuziphatha komhlambi kuchaphazela umntu, oko kubeka emngciphekweni amandla abo okwenza isigqibo esazi kakuhle, kuba ukuziphatha komhlambi kubangela ukuba abantu bacinge ukuba abanye abantu benza uphando ngezigqibo zabo, betsiba inyathelo kubo- ngokufanayo.

umsantsa ngokweemvakalelo

Umsantsa ngokweemvakalelo uchaza xa imvakalelo egqithisileyo iqhuba izigqibo zomntu zemali. Kwezemali, iimvakalelo ezihlala zisenza isikhewu ngokweemvakalelo lixhala, ukubawa, ihlombe, noloyiko. Ukusilela ngokweemvakalelo kunokuchaphazela ukukwazi komntu ukwenza ezona zigqibo zilungileyo zezimali. Ke ngoko, iingcali zezimali zihlala zizama ukunika iingcebiso ezinengqondo kubaxumi babo endaweni yoko.

I-ankile

Ingqikelelo ye-ankile iphonononga ukuba umntu ngamnye usekela izigqibo zakhe zemali. Rhoqo oku kuthetha ukunika ixabiso kwii-asethi eziyimali ngokusekelwe kwindawo yesalathiso esisigxina, njengexabiso eliphakathi. umzekelo, ukuba umrhwebi ubona ukuba isitokethi esithile sixabisa i-$ 100, banokusebenzisa loo xabiso lokuthenga njengebhentshi yokumisela ixabiso lokwenene lempahla. Oku kubangela ukuba abantu ngabanye bangazihoyi ezinye iimpawu zexabiso.

Ukuzibonakalisa

Ukuzicingela kukutyekela ekwenzeni izigqibo ezisekelwe ekucingeni ngokugqithiseleyo kobuchule bomntu. Ezinye iingcaphephe zezemali zokuziphatha zijonga ukuzinikezela njengendlela yoqhawulo lweemvakalelo.

Oku kusenokuthetha ukuba umntu uthatha ulwazi lwakhe njengolungaphezulu kwamanqanaba abanye abantu abaqeqeshiweyo. Abantu ngabanye banokukuphepha ukuzicingela ngokwabo ngokumamela iingcebiso zeengcali zezimali kunye nokuphanda iziphumo ezinokwenzeka zesigqibo ngaphambi kokuba bazibophelele kuso.

🥀 Izimali zokuziphatha yintsimi ekhulayo

Iimali zokuziphatha ngoku ziphunyezwa kwiimodeli zoshishino zabacebisi bezemali kunye neendlela zokubandakanya abathengi. Kuba abahlalutyi bezemali, abaphathi bempahla kunye nenkqubo yotyalo-mali ngokwayo, imali yokuziphatha nayo ifumana ukubaluleka njengesiseko sendlela yotyalo-mali.

Ngoku kuyenzeka ukufumana ukutyunjwa kwezemali zokuziphatha. Le yinto ekufuneka uyiqwalasele ukuba ufuna ukuqonda iimarike okanye ugqwese njengomcebisi wezezimali. Entle ucwangciso lwezemali kukunceda ukuba.

isiphelo

Iimali zokuziphatha zibonisa ukuba abantu abenzi izigqibo zabo ngokusekelwe kuhlalutyo olusengqiqweni lwalo lonke ulwazi. Oku kunokukhokelela ekufudukeni kwixabiso elifanelekileyo lempahla yenkampani nganye, kunye nemarike xa iyonke ngexesha apho amaxabiso esitokhwe ehlangeneyo aphezulu kakhulu okanye aphantsi kakhulu.

Ukuqonda ngokucokisekileyo zonke iindlela zokuziphatha ezahlukeneyo kunye neempembelelo ezinokuthi zibekho kwimali yokuziphatha akufuneki kweli nqanaba, kodwa imigaqo kunye neengqiqo ezixutyushwa kweli nqaku zingavela kumbuzo weemviwo. Kodwa ngaphambi kokuba uhambe, nantsi ikhosi yoqeqesho eya kukufundisa indlela yokuthengisa iingcebiso kwi-intanethi. Cofa apha ukuze uyithenge.