Konke odinga ukukwazi mayelana nokushintshashintsha kwentengo yemakethe yamasheya 

I-Volatility yitemu lokutshalwa kwezimali elichaza lapho imakethe noma ezokuvikela ziba nezikhathi zokuguquguquka kwamanani okungalindelekile futhi kwesinye isikhathi okuzumayo. Abantu bavame ukucabanga kuphela ngokuguquguquka lapho amanani ehla. Kodwa ukuguquguquka kungabhekisela nasekukhuphukeni kwamanani kungazelelwe. Uma sikhuluma ngokuqinile, ukuguquguquka kuyisilinganiso sokuhlakazeka eduze kwesilinganiso noma ukubuyisela okumaphakathi kwesibambiso.

I-Volatility ingalinganiswa ngokusebenzisa ukuchezuka okujwayelekile, okubonisa ukuthi intengo yesitoko ihlanganiswe eduze kangakanani nesilinganiso esimaphakathi noma esinyakazayo (MA). Lapho amanani ehlanganiswe ngokuqinile, ukuchezuka okujwayelekile kuncane. Lapho amanani ehlukaniswa kakhulu, ukuchezuka okujwayelekile kubalulekile.

Kulesi sihloko, sikhuluma ngokushintshashintsha kwezimakethe zamasheya. Asihambe

Yini ebangela ukuntengantenga?

Kunezici eziningi ezingabangela ukuntengantenga kwentengo yempahla emakethe. Kulesi sihloko, sethula ezimbalwa zalezi zici. Funda kuze kube sekupheleni.

1. Izici zezombangazwe nezomnotho

Ohulumeni badlala indima enkulu ekulawuleni izimboni futhi bangaba nomthelela emnothweni lapho benza izinqumo mayelana nezivumelwano zokuhwebelana, imithetho kanye nenqubomgomo. Konke kusukela enkulumweni kuye okhethweni kungabangela ukusabela phakathi kwabatshalizimali, okuthonya amanani esitoko.

Idatha yezomnotho nayo idlala indima, ngoba lapho umnotho wenza kahle, abatshalizimali bavame ukusabela kahle. Imibiko yanyanga zonke yokuqashwa, idatha yokwehla kwamandla emali, izibalo zokuchithwa kwabathengi, kanye nezibalo zekota ze-GDP konke kungaba nomthelela ekusebenzeni kwezimakethe. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, uma lokhu kungahlangabezani nokulindelwe yimakethe, izimakethe zingashintshashintsha kakhulu.

2. Izimboni Nezici Zomkhakha

Izehlakalo ezithile zingabangela ukuguquguquka ngaphakathi kwemboni noma umkhakha. Emkhakheni kawoyela, isibonelo, isenzakalo sezulu esikhulu endaweni enkulu ekhiqiza uwoyela singabangela ukuba amanani kawoyela anyuke.

Ngenxa yalokho, amanani amasheya ezinkampani ezihlobene nokusatshalaliswa kukawoyela angase akhuphuke, njengoba umuntu angalindela ukuba zithole inzuzo, kuyilapho amanani alabo abanezindleko eziphakeme zikawoyela ebhizinisini labo angase ehle.

Ngokufanayo, ukukhushulwa kwemithetho kahulumeni embonini ethile kungabangela ukuba amanani esitoko ehle, ngenxa yokukhuphuka kokuthotshelwa kwemithetho kanye nezindleko zabasebenzi ezingase zibe nomthelela ekukhuleni kwemali etholwayo esikhathini esizayo.

3. Ukusebenza kwenkampani

I-Volatility ayihlali njalo emakethe yonke futhi kungase kukhathazeke ubunikazi bodwa. Izindaba ezinhle, njengombiko oqinile weholo noma umkhiqizo omusha okhanga abathengi, zingenza abatshalizimali bajabule ngenkampani. Uma abatshalizimali abaningi befuna ukuyithenga, lesi sidingo esikhulayo singasiza ukukhuphula intengo yesitoko kakhulu.

Ngokuphambene, ukukhumbula umkhiqizo, ukwephulwa kwedatha, noma ukuziphatha okubi kokuphatha kungalimaza intengo yesitoko njengoba abatshalizimali bethengisa amasheya abo. Ngokuya ngosayizi wenkampani, lokhu kusebenza okuhle noma okungalungile nakho kungaba nomthelela emakethe ebanzi.

Izinhlobo zokuguquguquka

I-Volatility ingenye yezinto abatshalizimali ezimakethe zezimali abazihlaziyayo uma benza izinqumo. Kunezindlela ezimbili eziyinhloko zokuguquguquka, ngayinye inobuhle nebubi bayo:

Ukuguquguquka okushiwo

Itemu elisho ukuguquguquka lichaza ukuguquguquka okulinganiselwe kwempahla futhi isici esivamile sokuhweba ngezinketho. Ukuguquguquka okushiwo kubonisa indlela imakethe ebona ngayo lapho kufanele kube khona ukuguquguquka esikhathini esizayo, kodwa ayibikezeli isiqondiso lapho intengo yempahla izohamba khona.

Ngokuvamile, ukuntengantenga kwempahla kuyenyuka emakethe yebhere ngoba abatshalizimali abaningi balindele intengo yayo ukuthi iqhubeke yehla ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.

Iyancipha phakathi imakethe yezinkunzi ngoba abathengisi bakholelwa ukuthi intengo izokhuphuka ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Lokhu kungenxa yenkolelo evamile yokuthi izimakethe zamabhere ngokwemvelo ziyingozi kunezimakethe zezinkunzi.

Ukuguquguquka okushiwo ingenye yezindlela abadayisi bemethrikhi abazisebenzisayo ukulinganisa ukunyakaza kwentengo yesikhathi esizayo yempahla ngokusekelwe kuzici ezimbalwa zokubikezela.

Ukuguquguquka okutholakele / komlando

I-realized volatility, eyaziwa nangokuthi ukuguquguquka komlando, kuyindlela yokulinganisa ngokwezibalo ukuthi imbuyiselo yempahla ethile noma inkomba yemakethe ihlakazwa kanjani lapho ihlaziywa ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.

Ngokuvamile, ukuguquguquka komlando kukalwa ngokusungula ukuchezuka okumaphakathi kwethuluzi lezezimali kusukela kuntengo yayo emaphakathi esikhathini esithile esinikeziwe.

Ukuchezuka okujwayelekile ijwayele ukuba isilinganiso esivame kakhulu sokuntengantenga okubonakalayo, nakuba zikhona ezinye izindlela ezisetshenziswayo ukubala le metric. Isivikelo esiyingozi yileso esinenani eliphezulu lokuguquguquka komlando nakuba kwezinye izinhlobo zohwebo lokhu akuyona into embi njengoba izimo ze-bullish ne-bearish zingaba yingozi.

Ngokumelene nalezi zinyathelo ezimbili, ukuguquguquka komlando (okubuyela emuva) kusebenza njengesilinganiso sokubhekisela,

Uma lezi zinyathelo ezimbili zibonisa amanani afanayo, khona-ke impahla ibhekwa njengentengo efanelekile ngokusekelwe kumazinga omlando. Ngenxa yalesi sizathu, abahwebi babheka ukuchezuka kule bhalansi ukuze banqume ukuthi izimpahla zibaluleke kakhulu yini noma azibukelwanga phansi.

Imodeli Yokuchezuka Ejwayelekile Yokulinganisa Ukuguquguquka Kwezezimali

Ukuchezuka okujwayelekile isilinganiso esisetshenziselwa ukunquma ngokwezibalo izinga lokuhlakazeka noma ukuhluka phakathi kwenani elimaphakathi lempahla yezezimali, okuyenza ibe indlela efanelekile yokulinganisa ukuntengantenga kwemakethe. Ngokuvamile, ukuhlakazeka kuwumehluko phakathi kwenani elimaphakathi lempahla kanye nenani layo langempela.

Ukuphakama kokuhlakazeka noma ukuhlukahluka, iphezulu ukuchezuka okujwayelekile. Ukuhluka okuncane, kuncane ukuchezuka okujwayelekile. Abahlaziyi bavame ukusebenzisa ukuchezuka okujwayelekile njengendlela yokulinganisa ubungozi obulindelekile futhi banqume ubukhulu bomnyakazo wentengo.

Lapho kubalwa ukuchezuka okujwayelekile kokuntengantenga, ukuhluka kwesethi yedatha yenani lempahla eyisisekelo kufanele kutholwe. Ukuchezuka okujwayelekile kuyimpande yesikwele yokuhluka.

Ngezinjongo zemifanekiso, sizocabangela intengo yempahla eyisisekelo ekhuphuke ngokufana I-1 $ kuya ku-10 $ ezikhathini zokuhweba eziyi-10. Ukuchezuka okujwayelekile kuzotholwa ngezinyathelo ezilandelayo:

• Bala isilinganiso sezinsuku zokuhweba eziyi-10. Lokhu kwenziwa ngokungeza amanani ($1, $2… kuya ku-$10) bese uyihlukanisa ngo-10 (kulokhu, inani eliphelele lemiklomelo). Isamba esingu-55 sihlukaniswe ngo-10 sizoba I-5,5 $.
• Nquma ukuchezuka kusukela kusilinganiso ngesikhathi ngasinye. Ingumehluko phakathi kwentengo yokuvala kanye nesilinganiso. Isibonelo, ngosuku lwe-7, intengo ye 7 $ ichezuka esilinganisweni $5,5 kusukela ku-2,5.
• Sikwele ukuchezuka kwesikhathi ngasinye. Zonke izikhathi ezinokuchezuka okungekuhle zizoqedwa ngokuzihlanganisa.
• Engeza umehluko oyisikwele. Ngokwesibonelo sethu, isamba sithi 82,5 $
• Hlukanisa isamba ngenani lezikhathi, kulokhu, 10. Lokhu kuzoba I-8,25 $.
• Ukuchezuka okujwayelekile kuyimpande eyisikwele yale nombolo. Kulokhu, ukuchezuka okujwayelekile kungukuthi $ 2,75, okubonisa ukusatshalaliswa kwamanani azungeze inani elimaphakathi, okunikeza abathengisi ukuqonda ekuphambukeni okungaba khona phakathi kwentengo yempahla nesilinganiso.

Njengoba isibalo esingenhla sibonisa, ukuchezuka okujwayelekile njengesilinganiso sobungozi kuthatha ukuthi isethi yedatha ilandela ukusatshalaliswa okuvamile, noma lokho okwaziwa ngokuthi ijika lensimbi.

Esimeni esinjalo, njengenhla, 68% idatha izowela phakathi kokuchezuka okujwayelekile okukodwa; 95% izotholakala kabili ukuchezuka okujwayelekile kanye no-99,7% idatha izowela phakathi kokuchezuka okujwayelekile okuthathu.

Kodwa kunemikhawulo ethile ekusebenziseni ukuchezuka okujwayelekile njengesilinganiso sokuguquguquka. Okokuqala, izintengo noma izimbuyiselo azifani neze, futhi ziphawulwa yizikhathi zokukhuphuka okubukhali kuzo zombili izinkomba.

Lokhu kusho ukuthi ukuchezuka okujwayelekile ngokwako kungaguquguquka kuye ngezikhathi ezicatshangelwe phakathi nokubala.

Kukhona futhi indlela ye-beta (β) ukukala noma ukubala ukuntengantenga. Kule ndlela, ukuntengantenga kwempahla eyisisekelo kukalwa ngokuqhathaniswa nezinye izimpahla ezihlobene.

Isibonelo, Ukuntengantenga kwesitoko se-Apple kungalinganiswa ngokuntengantenga kukonke kwezinye izitoko zobuchwepheshe noma ngisho kuqhathaniswa nenkomba yesitoko sokuma esibanzi.

Izinzuzo Zokuguquguquka Kwemakethe

Ukuguquguquka akuyona into embi ngaso sonke isikhathi. Ukulungiswa kwezimakethe kwesinye isikhathi kunganikeza amaphuzu okungena abatshalizimali abangazuza ngawo.

Uma umtshali-zimali enokheshi futhi elinde ukutshala imali emakethe yamasheya, ukulungiswa kwemakethe kungase kunikeze ithuba lokutshala leyo mali ngentengo ephansi. Ukuntengantenga kokwehla kwezimakethe kunikeza abatshalizimali abakholelwa ukuthi izimakethe zizokwenza kahle ngokuhamba kwesikhathi ithuba lokuthenga amasheya engeziwe ezinkampanini ezizithandayo, kodwa ngamanani aphansi.

Isibonelo esilula mhlawumbe umtshali-zimali angathenga 5O? $0, isitokwe ebesibiza u-$100 esikhathini esifushane esedlule. Ukuthenga izitoko ngale ndlela kwehlisa izindleko zakho ezimaphakathi ngesheya ngalinye, okusiza ukuthuthukisa ukusebenza kwephothifoliyo yakho lapho izimakethe zigcina zikhuphuka futhi.

Inqubo iyafana uma isitoko sikhula ngokushesha. Abatshalizimali bangathola inzuzo ngokuthengisa, imali etholwayo ingatshalwa kwezinye izindawo ezinikeza amathuba angcono.

Ngokuqonda ukuguquguquka kanye nezimbangela zako, abatshalizimali bangakwazi ukusebenzisa amathuba okutshala izimali abawavezayo ukuze benze imbuyiselo engcono yesikhathi eside.