Yonke into okufuneka uyazi malunga nokuguquguquka kwexabiso lemarike yemasheya 

I-Volatility ligama lotyalo-mali elichaza xa imarike okanye ukhuseleko lufumana amaxesha angalindelekanga kwaye ngamanye amaxesha amaxabiso ahamba ngokukhawuleza. Abantu bahlala becinga kuphela ngokuguquguquka xa amaxabiso esihla. Kodwa ukuguquguquka kunokubhekisa ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso ngesiquphe. Ukuthetha ngokuthe ngqo, ukuguquguquka ngumlinganiselo wokusasazwa malunga nentsingiselo okanye imbuyekezo eqhelekileyo yokhuseleko.

I-Volatility inokulinganiswa ngokusebenzisa ukutenxa okusemgangathweni, nto leyo ebonisa ukuba ixabiso lesitokhwe lisondele kangakanani kumyinge ophakathi okanye ohambahambayo (MA). Xa amaxabiso edityaniswe ngokuqinileyo, ukutenxa okusemgangathweni kuncinci. Xa amaxabiso esahlulwe kakhulu, ukutenxa okusemgangathweni kubalulekile.

Kweli nqaku, sithetha ngokusisiseko malunga nokuguquguquka kwemarike yemasheya. Makhe siye

Yintoni ebangela ukuguquguquka?

Kukho izinto ezininzi ezinokubangela ukuguquguquka kwexabiso le-asethi kwimarike. Kweli nqaku, sinikela nje ezimbalwa zezi zinto. Funda kude kube sekupheleni.

1. Imiba yezopolitiko nezoqoqosho

Oorhulumente badlala indima enkulu ekulawuleni amashishini kwaye banokuchaphazela uqoqosho xa besenza izigqibo malunga nezivumelwano zorhwebo, imithetho kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo. Yonke into esuka kwiintetho ukuya kunyulo inokubangela ukusabela phakathi kwabatyalo-mali, okuchaphazela amaxabiso esitokhwe.

Idatha yezoqoqosho nayo idlala indima, kuba xa uqoqosho luhamba kakuhle, abatyali-mali bavame ukusabela kakuhle. Iingxelo zenyanga zengqesho, idatha yokunyuka kwamaxabiso, amanani enkcitho yabathengi, kunye nokubalwa kwe-GDP yekota kunokuchaphazela ukusebenza kweemarike. Kwelinye icala, ukuba ezi zinto azifikeleli kulindelo lwemarike, iimarike zingaguquka.

2. Imiba yoShishino kunye neCandelo

Iziganeko ezithile zinokubangela ukuguquguquka ngaphakathi kwishishini okanye kwicandelo. Kwicandelo leoli, umzekelo, isiganeko esikhulu semozulu kummandla omkhulu wokuvelisa ioli sinokubangela ukuba ixabiso leoli linyuke.

Ngenxa yoko, amaxabiso esitokhwe seenkampani ezinxulumene nokuhanjiswa kweoyile zinokunyuka, njengoko umntu unokulindela ukuba azuze, ngelixa amaxabiso abo baneendleko eziphezulu zeoyile kwishishini labo banokuwa.

Ngokufanayo, ukunyuswa kolawulo lukarhulumente kwishishini elithile kunokubangela ukuba amaxabiso esitokhwe ehle, ngenxa yokwanda kokuthotyelwa kunye neendleko zabasebenzi ezinokuchaphazela ukukhula kwemivuzo yexesha elizayo.

3. Ukusebenza kwenkampani

I-Volatility ayisoloko kwimarike ngokubanzi kwaye inokukhathazeka ubunikazi bodwa. Iindaba ezilungileyo, ezifana nengxelo yengeniso eyomeleleyo okanye imveliso entsha ebhenela kubathengi, inokwenza abatyali-mali bonwabe ngenkampani. Ukuba abatyali-mali abaninzi bajonge ukuyithenga, le mfuno yandayo inokunceda ukunyusa ixabiso lesitokhwe ngokukhawuleza.

Ngokwahlukileyo, ukukhumbula imveliso, ukuphulwa kwedatha, okanye ukuziphatha kakubi kokulawula konke kunokulimaza ixabiso lesitokhwe njengoko abatyali-mali bathengisa amasheya abo. Ngokuxhomekeke kubukhulu benkampani, le ntsebenzo intle okanye embi inokuba nefuthe kwimarike ebanzi.

Iintlobo zokuguquguquka

I-Volatility yenye yezinto ezihlalutya abatyali-mali kwiimarike zemali xa besenza izigqibo. Kukho iindlela ezimbini eziphambili zokuguquguquka, nganye ineenzuzo kunye neengxaki zayo:

Intsingiselo yokuguquguquka

Igama elithi ukuguquguquka okuxeliweyo lichaza ukuguquguquka okuqikelelweyo kwe-asethi kwaye luphawu oluqhelekileyo lokuthengisa okukhethwa kukho. Ukungaguquguquki okuchazwayo kubonisa indlela imarike ebona ngayo apho ukuguquguquka kufanele kube khona kwixesha elizayo, kodwa ayibikezeli isalathiso apho ixabiso le-asethi liya kuhamba.

Ngokuqhelekileyo, ukuguquguquka okuxeliweyo kwe-asethi kuyenyuka kwimarike yeebhere kuba uninzi lwabatyali-mali balindele ukuba ixabiso layo liqhubeke nokuhla ngokuhamba kwexesha.

Iyancipha kwi imarike yenkomo kuba abarhwebi bakholelwa ukuba ixabiso liya kunyuka ngokuhamba kwexesha. Oku kungenxa yenkolelo eqhelekileyo yokuba iimarike zeebhere ngokwendalo zinomngcipheko kuneemarike zenkunzi.

Intsingiselo yokuguquguquka ngomnye wabarhwebi beemetrics abazisebenzisayo ukuqikelela iintshukumo zexabiso elizayo le-asethi ngokusekelwe kwizinto ezininzi eziqikelelwayo.

Kuqondwa / ukungazinzi kwembali

Ukuguquguquka okubonakalayo, okwakwaziwa ngokuba kukuguquguquka kwembali, yindlela yokulinganisa ngokweenkcukacha ukuba imbuyekezo ye-asethi ethile okanye isalathiso semarike isasazwa njani xa ihlalutywa kwixesha elithile.

Ngokuqhelekileyo, ukuguquguquka kwembali kulinganiswa ngokuseka umndilili wokutenxa kwisixhobo semali ukusuka kwixabiso eliphakathi kwixabiso lexesha elithile.

Ukutenxa okusemgangathweni ithande ukuba ngowona mlinganiselo uqhelekileyo wokuguquguquka okubonakalayo, nangona kukho ezinye iindlela ezisetyenziswayo ukubala le metric. Ukhuseleko oluyingozi lunexabiso eliphezulu lokuguquguquka kwembali nangona kwezinye iintlobo zorhwebo oku akuyomfuneko ukuba ibe yinto engalunganga kuba iimeko ze-bullish kunye ne-bearish zinokuba yingozi.

Ngokuchasene nale milinganiselo mibini, ukuguquguquka kwembali (okubuyela emva) kusebenza njengomlinganiselo wereferensi,

Ukuba imilinganiselo emibini ibonisa amaxabiso afanayo, i-asethi ithathwa njengexabiso elifanelekileyo ngokusekelwe kwimigangatho yembali. Ngenxa yesi sizathu, abarhwebi bajonge ukutenxa kule bhalansi ukuze babone ukuba ii-asethi zixatyiswe kakhulu okanye azixabisekanga.

IModeli yoTyikiso oluMgangatho lokuQinisa ukuZinzi kweZimali

Ukutenxa emgangathweni ngumlinganiselo osetyenziswayo ukumisela ngokweenkcukacha inqanaba losasazo okanye ukuguquguquka malunga nomndilili wexabiso le-asethi eyimali, oko kuyenza ibe yindlela efanelekileyo yokulinganisa ukuguquguquka kweemarike. Ngokubanzi, ukusasazwa ngumahluko phakathi komndilili wexabiso le-asethi kunye nexabiso layo lokwenyani.

Ukuphakama kokusasazeka okanye ukuguquguquka, okukhona kuphezulu ukutenxa okusemgangathweni. Incinci inguquko, encinci ukutenxa okusemgangathweni. Abahlalutyi bavame ukusebenzisa ukuphambuka okusemgangathweni njengendlela yokulinganisa umngcipheko olindelekileyo kwaye banqume ubungakanani bokuhamba kwexabiso.

Xa ubala ukutenxa komgangatho wokuguquguquka, ukungafani kweseti yedatha yexabiso le-asethi ephantsi kufuneka kuthathwe. Ukutenxa okusemgangathweni yingcambu yomahluko.

Ngeenjongo zokubonisa, siya kuthathela ingqalelo ixabiso le-asethi esisiseko elinyuke ngokufanayo nge $ 1 ukuya kwi- $ 10 ngamaxesha orhwebo ali-10. Ukutenxa okusemgangathweni kuya kwenziwa kula manyathelo alandelayo:

• Bala umyinge weentsuku ezili-10 zokurhweba. Oku kwenziwa ngokudibanisa amaxabiso ($1, $2… ukuya $10) emva koko ukwahlula ngo-10 (kule meko, inani elipheleleyo lamabhaso). Isambuku sama-55 sahlulwe ngo-10 siya kuba 5,5 $.
• Qinisekisa ukutenxa kumyinge wexesha ngalinye. Ngumahluko phakathi kwexabiso lokuvala kunye nomyinge. Umzekelo, ngomhla we-7, ixabiso le 7 $ itenxa kumndilili $ 5,5 ukusuka 2,5.
• Isikwere sokutenxa kwixesha ngalinye. Onke amaxesha anokutenxa okubi aya kupheliswa ngokuwaphindaphinda.
• Yongeza izitenxa eziphindwe kabini. Ngokomzekelo wethu, isimbuku sithi 82,5 $
• Yahlula isixa ngenani lamaxesha, kule meko, 10. Oku kuya kuba 8,25 $.
• Umtembuko osemgangathweni yingcambu yeli nani. Kule meko, ukutenxa okusemgangathweni $ 2,75, ebonisa ukuhanjiswa kwamaxabiso malunga nexabiso eliphakathi, elinika abarhwebi ingqiqo malunga nokutenxa okunokwenzeka phakathi kwexabiso le-asethi kunye nomndilili.

Njengoko ubalo olungentla lubonisa, ukutenxa okusemgangathweni njengomlinganiselo womngcipheko kuthatha ukuba isethi yedatha ilandela ukusabalalisa okuqhelekileyo, okanye oko kwaziwa ngokuba yintsimbi yentsimbi.

Kwimeko enjalo, njengangasentla, 68% idatha iya kuwela phakathi kokutenxa okusemgangathweni omnye; 95% ziya kuba kubini ukutenxa okusemgangathweni kunye ne-99,7% idatha iya kuwela phakathi kwezitenxo ezisemgangathweni ezintathu.

Kodwa kukho imida ethile ekusebenziseni ukutenxa okusemgangathweni njengomlinganiselo wokuguquguquka. Kwabaqalayo, amaxabiso okanye iimbuyekezo azizange zifane, kwaye ziphawulwa ngamaxesha okunyuka okubukhali kumacala omabini.

Oku kuthetha ukuba ukutenxa emgangathweni ngokwawo kungaguquguquka ngokuxhomekeke kumaxesha athatyathiweyo xa kubalwa.

Kukho kwakhona indlela ye-beta (β) ukulinganisa okanye ukubala ukuguquguquka. Ngale ndlela, ukuguquguquka kwe-asethi engaphantsi kulinganiswa ngokunxulumene nezinye ii-asethi ezinxulumeneyo.

Ngokomzekelo, Ukuguquguquka kwesitokhwe se-Apple kunokulinganiswa ngokuchasene nokuguquguquka kukonke kwezinye izitokhwe zetekhnoloji okanye ngokuchasene nesalathiso sesitokhwe esibanzi.

Iinzuzo zokuguquguquka kweMarike

Ukuguquguquka akusoloko kuyinto embi. Ukulungiswa kweemarike ngamanye amaxesha kunokubonelela ngamanqaku okungena abatyali-mali banokuthabatha ithuba kuwo.

Ukuba umtyali-mali unemali kwaye ulindele ukutyala imali kwimarike yemasheya, ukulungiswa kweemarike kunokunika ithuba lokutyala loo mali ngexabiso eliphantsi. Ukuhla kokuguquka kweemarike kukwanika abatyali-mali abakholelwa ukuba iimarike ziya kusebenza kakuhle kwixesha elide ithuba lokuthenga izabelo ezongezelelweyo kwiinkampani ezithandayo, kodwa ngamaxabiso aphantsi.

Umzekelo olula mhlawumbi umtyali-mali unokuthenga 5O? $0, isitokhwe esasixabisa i-100 yeedola kwixesha elifutshane elidlulileyo. Ukuthenga izitokhwe ngale ndlela kwehlisa iindleko zakho eziqhelekileyo ngesabelo ngasinye, nto leyo enceda ekuphuculeni ukusebenza kwepotfoliyo yakho xa iimakethi ziphinda zibuyela emva.

Inkqubo iyafana xa isitokhwe sikhula ngokukhawuleza. Abatyali-mali banokuzuza ngokuthengisa, ingeniso enokuthi ityalwe kwezinye iindawo ezibonelela ngamathuba angcono.

Ngokuqonda ukuguquguquka kunye nezizathu zako, abatyali-mali banokusebenzisa amathuba otyalo-mali abawabonisayo ukuze benze imbuyekezo engcono yexesha elide.